A Watson Trade Only Helps One Team!
This article is by Ray Clifford who is part of the Jets Rewind Podcast team
The Jets and specifically Joe Douglas are in a prime spot to set this franchise up for years to come. They have several high draft picks over the next two years and they will probably add more if they trade Sam Darnold or the second overall pick. They are under the cap at around $68 million, so they are also able to be major players in the Free Agent market. It's not unrealistic to think that this roster can be flipped and the Jets could be in... dare I say it.... in the Super Bowl conversation in the near future? Yes I do dare and yes they could!!
There is only one thing that could de-rail that dream. And, depending on which utterly ridiculous scenario they went with, could leave them mired in mediocrity for years to come. They absolutely cannot trade for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. For the past month I've listened to sports talk shows talking about how the Jets are really the only landing spot that makes sense. Oh, I understand why trading with the Jets makes sense... FOR THE TEXANS! I have yet to hear a realistic explanation of how it works for the Jets. This is not a knock on Deshaun Watson. It is common sense. Then when it finally looked like the Watson news was dying down news broke that Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll were at odds and Wilson might want to be traded. Sure enough the talk shows were all discussing landing spots and where do you think they thought the best place would be? However, Wilson has a no trade clause in his contract and he gave Seattle a list of the teams he would be willing to be traded to and, fortunately, the Jets are not on that list.
Here are just two of the proposed trades from two respected NFL commentators, Peter King, well known NFL insider journalist, and Mike Tannenbaum, former Jets GM, now ESPN guest contributor. King proposed the Jets give up two first rounders, the second pick this year and the higher of next year’s two number ones, this year’s second rounder (#34), and a second round pick in 2023. Plus, the Jets send them Sam Darnold and Quinnen Williams. But wait, there's more! The Texans are cap strapped so they could ask the Jets to take on the $10.5 million guaranteed contract for Whitney Mercilus! To be fair, King does say Joe Douglas would probably pass on trading for him knowing how many holes the Jets have to fill. Then there's Tannenbaum. He's on the record saying if he were still GM of the Jets (we should all thank our lucky stars he's not), he would part with four first round picks and Quinnen Williams.
The other scenarios I heard were much the same. So let's look at this logically. The Jets need a defensive back or two, another defensive lineman or edge rusher, an offensive lineman, really probably two, and maybe a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Are they willing to trade all our top draft capital and our best young defensive lineman for one quarterback? What are they going to surround him with? The Texans weren't very good last year and Watson got sacked 49 times. The Jets line was worse. There goes one third of the cap space to sign free agents. There goes all the high draft picks that should have filled holes with guys who could have stepped right in as starters. Could they still possibly start right out of the gate, sure, but Joe better hit on a lot of his picks. He doesn't have much room for error. Same with free agents.
The biggest decision Joe Douglas is going to make this year will be if he's going to splurge on the shiny new sports car or buy the sensible four door sedan that will last him for the next fifteen years.
Ray Clifford, a lifelong fan wrote this article. Ray appears on the Jets Rewind Podcast and has been a Jets fan his entire life. The Podcast can be heard at:
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Trade back, get a haul, and fill out the offense in one year!
Your preachin’ to the choir Gary!! If they don’t want to draft a quarterback that 2nd pick is GOLD!!
Oftentimes it feels like the media pushes for these ridiculous proposals so that they can later lament the Jets as a “laughingstock organization” for foolishly believing Watson/Wilson an absolute panacea for the complete lack of talent on the team. What’s worse, a casual look at any of the Jets’ social media accounts presents a deluge of comments urging a trade for Watson suggesting no limit to what Houston would have in return. Abject lunacy.
The Eagles gave up two 1s, a 2nd, 3rd and 4th to move up from 8 to 2. Personally, I like the potential for two 1s and THREE 3s in 2021 AND THREE 1s and two 2s in 2022 quickly turning the NY Jets into one of the youngest, most talented teams in the league before Darnold turns 27. How’s Carolina feel about their QB situation, I wonder…?
You’re right on the money scionce… fortunately, it appears that Jets Rewind followers are smarter than that! I think Carolina is one of several teams that would covet that pick if they decide to hold onto Sam. They just need to decide well before the draft and get the word out so there’s time for a good bidding war to get revved up.
Love me a good bidding war, but allow me to play devil’s advocate and propose that perhaps the pressure cooker of draft day trading might find a team overpaying just to ensure not losing out on “their guy”. Given JD’s draft savvy, I imagine he’d handily hoodwink a QB-needy team into unloading a haul. That said, any level of confirmation now on the direction the Jets will take would do well, not only to initiate an auction-like atmosphere, but to quell sports media speculation on a Watson/Wilson trade. The Jets and their fans are on the cusp of assembling an actual team, a concept lost for over a decade plus in NY, Green & White football. We all just need to hope the Jets’ most significant fan (looking directly at you, Woody Johnson) doesn’t screw it all up and demand a trade.
“… Jets Rewind followers are smarter…”
I cannot express enough how appreciative I am to have found this blog. Social media is rampant with fans cut directly from the Woody/Maccagnan/Tannenbaum mold: the most important win is the big splash get. To even suggest that the draft capital the Jets have is even marginally more valuable than trading it all away for one player, regardless of position, is to invite persecution. I am thankful to engage with like-minded Jets fans who embrace the concepts of team, chemistry and leadership as they relate to the greatest sport ever created: American football. So, thank you, Ray. And thank you, Marty. You’ve given non-impulsive Jets fans a forum to share their contemplations “away from the madding crowd.”
No doubt he should wait until draft night to pull the trigger unless he gets absolutely blown away by an offer. I just want them to get the word out early enough so prospective teams don’t make other arrangements before they know that either Sam or that 2nd overall pick is available.
Commentators keep insisting on 3 of 4 first round picks for Watson but do not consider the value of those picks. For example Seattle traded two first round picks to the Jets for Adams but their value is about half of what the #2 pick is work. So in theory, Seattle trading four of their first round picks would be the same and just the #2 pick this year.
The Jets need too much help to give away the farm. Forget adding Q to the mix, that would cost the Jets $10M in dead cap space further hampering their ability to add players. Giving away the top three picks this year is far too much too.
If Houston accepts #2 and our first pick in 2022 and 2023 and this years 3 and a 5, that would still leave the Jets with a pick in every round the next two years. It would give Houston a replacement QB with high potential and an extra 1 the next two years. Fair compensation for both teams.
Hi Charlie!
Thanks for your comment! There are a few “Jet Camps” out there as to what to do. I’m in the camp of stocking picks to set up the franchise for the next 10 year a la Cowboys via H. Walker trade. Your scenario does sound reasonable to grab him. You sound like you are familiar with the NFL draft chart. If not, this link will take you an a previous article that I wrote with the value chart at the end:
<https://jetsrewind.com/new-york-jets-decisions-draft-and-nfl-value-chart/
Looking at the chart, the Jets 2nd pick is worth 2600 points. That, in essence is equal to the four first round picks late in the round. Pick number 27 (680pts), pick #28 (660 points), pick #29 (640 pts.) and pick # 30 (620 pts). It is incredible to me how Jet fans, commentators and so called experts throw around these draft picks like they grow on trees. Yes, Watson may be a special player but I would roll the dice at the QB position to build through the draft.
Stay in touch!
Regards
Marty Schupak
Jets Rewind
JEFFRI CHADIHA: The one team that makes the most sense in a trade for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is the New York Jets. The most obvious reason is that Watson reportedly likes the idea of going there. Apparently, he’s a big fan of new Jets head coach Robert Saleh, and he’d have plenty of marketing opportunities in the Big Apple. The Jets also haven’t figured out if Sam Darnold is their long-term answer at quarterback.